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What will happen to the stock market and bond market in the future?Soochow securities said that "moderate easing" may mean that the interest rate cut is more than expected, and the liquidity is relaxed. Soochow securities believes that under the current loose monetary policy, next year will usher in the stage of "two bulls with stocks and debts", and it is expected that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will drop to 1.5%.When the market opened in early trading, the three major indexes of A shares put on a "bullish" posture. In the morning session, under the tone of "stabilizing the property market and improving investment efficiency", the three major indexes of A shares opened sharply higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 2.58% higher; Shenzhen Component Index opened 3.66% higher; Growth enterprise market index opened 4.88% higher, but the three major stock indexes then began to fluctuate downward, and there was no obvious rebound all day, and finally made up for the gap left by the early opening.

On December 10 th, the news that the bull market that investors were looking forward to didn't wait. On the contrary, A shares went out of the "hair set" market, which made people feel surprised.Just last Friday, a lot of funds have entered the market, and the three major stock indexes of A shares rose more than 1% that day. Previously, the market essays have flowed out of the time of two major conferences, and the market traded the expectation of "two key conferences are good" many times in November. Previously, CITIC Securities had expressed its outlook for December in the research report, and it is expected that the policy of the Central Economic Work Conference will remain positive, reversing the expectation that institutional funds were too conservative; At the same time, it is expected that the economic data will rise steadily, and the partial improvement of the price signal in the real estate sector will also boost investor confidence; In the end, institutional funds, active funds and retail funds will gradually form a resonance to promote the market's new year's market.CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that during the last round of moderate easing, the interest rate cut and RRR cut reached 150BP, and the stocks and debts were both bullish at first, and the stocks continued to rise in the later period, and the bonds fell. In 2011, the inflation reached more than 5%, and the economy was overheated. In the latest research report, CITIC Securities pointed out that debt bulls may continue in stages, and both stocks and debts can be expected. From the historical experience, for the bond market, mentioning "moderate easing" does not mean that the bull market is approaching, and the core of the duration of the debt bull lies in the sustainability of the subsequent wide money operation; For the stock market, compared with the expectation of wide money, the stock market deals with the boosting effect of wide money on the real economy, but this feature has been reversed in recent years. Looking forward to the follow-up, this meeting mentioned "strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which expressed the incremental policy space relatively positively, while the effectiveness of the previous policy tools was still not fully displayed at the data level, and the probability of the rapid exit of the wide currency was still small. Both stock and debt markets may have a strong foundation.

Just last Friday, a lot of funds have entered the market, and the three major stock indexes of A shares rose more than 1% that day. Previously, the market essays have flowed out of the time of two major conferences, and the market traded the expectation of "two key conferences are good" many times in November. Previously, CITIC Securities had expressed its outlook for December in the research report, and it is expected that the policy of the Central Economic Work Conference will remain positive, reversing the expectation that institutional funds were too conservative; At the same time, it is expected that the economic data will rise steadily, and the partial improvement of the price signal in the real estate sector will also boost investor confidence; In the end, institutional funds, active funds and retail funds will gradually form a resonance to promote the market's new year's market.As for why A-shares go high and low, it may be related to the positive cashing of some hidden funds of A-shares and the seesaw effect of stock bonds.CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that during the last round of moderate easing, the interest rate cut and RRR cut reached 150BP, and the stocks and debts were both bullish at first, and the stocks continued to rise in the later period, and the bonds fell. In 2011, the inflation reached more than 5%, and the economy was overheated. In the latest research report, CITIC Securities pointed out that debt bulls may continue in stages, and both stocks and debts can be expected. From the historical experience, for the bond market, mentioning "moderate easing" does not mean that the bull market is approaching, and the core of the duration of the debt bull lies in the sustainability of the subsequent wide money operation; For the stock market, compared with the expectation of wide money, the stock market deals with the boosting effect of wide money on the real economy, but this feature has been reversed in recent years. Looking forward to the follow-up, this meeting mentioned "strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which expressed the incremental policy space relatively positively, while the effectiveness of the previous policy tools was still not fully displayed at the data level, and the probability of the rapid exit of the wide currency was still small. Both stock and debt markets may have a strong foundation.